Fork the Future
Two decisions, ten years, side by side
Branch A
0.5x leverage · governance 78/100
Shareholder value, year 10$190.3M
+$100.3Mover 10 yearsLiquidity: no covenant or cash alerts
Branch B
0.5x leverage · governance 78/100
Shareholder value, year 10$190.3M
+$100.3Mover 10 yearsLiquidity: no covenant or cash alerts
Assumptions
Shared by both branches
EBITDA growthAnnual growth in operating earnings
+4%/yrCash conversionEBITDA left after taxes, capex and working capital
50%Shareholder value over time
Equity, minus expected governance losses, plus all cash paid out to date.
Both branches are identical. Pick a different starting point for one branch, or fix governance in one, to see the futures diverge.
Horizon detail
Compare at
| Year 10 | A · Today (no change) | B · Your scenario | B vs A |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shareholder value | $190.3M | $190.3M | Even |
| Founder wealth | $152.2M | $152.2M | Even |
| Next-gen wealth | $0.0M | $0.0M | Even |
| Enterprise value | $142.1M | $142.1M | Even |
| Debt | $0.0M | $0.0M | Even |
| Equity value | $142.1M | $142.1M | Even |
| Cash paid out to date | $68.4M | $68.4M | Even |
| Expected governance loss | $20.2M | $20.2M | Even |
| Chance of governance crisis | 47% | 47% | Even |
| Interest coverage | n/a | n/a | — |
| Warnings | None | None |