Capital Allocation Flight Simulator
See the consequences before you decide
Company baseline
Today's figures. Overwrite with the client's numbers, or paste a block straight from Excel.
$M
$M
x
$M
%
%
Decision levers
Move a lever to see the consequences cascade.
Debt leverageTotal debt as a multiple of today's EBITDA
0.5xEquity transfer to next genShare of the founder's stake gifted or sold to heirs
0%Valuation sensitivityMarket shift in the EBITDA multiple
0%Enterprise value
$96.0MNo changevs. Today$12.0M EBITDA × 8.0xEquity value
$90.0MNo changevs. TodayAfter $6.0M of debtDividend recap payout
$0.0MNo change to borrowingInterest coverage
25.0xNo changevs. TodayDebt 0.5x EBITDA · $480.0K/yr interestOwnership after the decision
Equity value and recap cash by holder
- Founder80% · $72.0M
- Next generation0% · $0.0M
- Other shareholders20% · $18.0M
Risk signals
- Governance debt criticalGovernance scores 78/100; informal authority, board and voting rules put $22.5M of value at risk.
Economics vs. Alignment
Financial performance against stakeholder consensus. Strong economics with a divided family is a deal that breaks later.
Load a strategy
Economics54
Alignment30
Value at odds
Stakeholder support
- Founder74
- Next-gen heir27
- Board52
- Lender59
Three-statement model
Income statement, cash flow and balance sheet for the scenario above, linked and balanced every year.
$ millions · year 0 is straight after the decision
| Income statement | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | Y7 | Y8 | Y9 | Y10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 41.6 | 43.3 | 45.0 | 46.8 | 48.7 | 50.6 | 52.6 | 54.7 | 56.9 | 59.2 |
| EBITDA | 12.5 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 14.0 | 14.6 | 15.2 | 15.8 | 16.4 | 17.1 | 17.8 |
| Depreciation | (1.2) | (1.3) | (1.3) | (1.4) | (1.5) | (1.5) | (1.6) | (1.6) | (1.7) | (1.8) |
| EBIT | 11.2 | 11.7 | 12.1 | 12.6 | 13.1 | 13.7 | 14.2 | 14.8 | 15.4 | 16.0 |
| Interest | (0.5) | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Taxes | (2.7) | (2.9) | (3.0) | (3.2) | (3.3) | (3.4) | (3.6) | (3.7) | (3.8) | (4.0) |
| Net income | 8.1 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 10.2 | 10.7 | 11.1 | 11.5 | 12.0 |
Operating assumptions
Growth is shared with Fork the Future. The others apply to this view only and aren't saved.
Revenue growthMargins held, so EBITDA grows alike
+4%/yrTax rateOn positive pre-tax profit
25%Capex% of revenue
3.5%Depreciation% of revenue
3.0%Working capitalHeld as % of revenue
10%Debt termStraight-line repayment of day-0 debt
7 yrsCost of equityFor WACC
14.0%Equity IRR, 10 years
12.4%WACC 13.5%Covenant breach probability
0.0%Of 1,000 paths, by year 5Equity value, year 5 (P10 · P50 · P90)$87.2M · $115.3M · $153.0MBase case $116.8M
Distribution of outcomes
Year-5 equity value across 1,000 simulated paths. The line marks the base case.